The Law of Universal Adoption
Saturday, May 17th, 2008
In the summer of 1994 I started a research assistantship at the Aerospace and Energetics Research Lab at the University of Washington. I joined a team working on something that Abe Hertzberg, who was the AERL director at the time, whimsically referred to as the Smogmobile. The car was steam powered, but used boiling nitrogen (highly purified air) instead on water.
Abe was motivated to try this approach because he had realized that battery powered electric cars, which were a popular idea at the time, weren’t going to scale effectively. By the time they were being used in the same numbers that internal combustion engine-powered vehicles were, disposal of the cars’ used lead-acid batteries would pose a formidable environmental problem.
This is certainly not a new conundrum - when the automobile was first introduced to London it was considered to be a source of great relief. The city streets at that time were subjected to an estimated 100 tons of horse manure per day due to the culture’s heavy dependence on horse drawn carriages.
Other problems, such as disposable diapers, have followed a similar pattern.
After years of seeing the same patterns I eventually formulated what I used to call “Pasco’s Law,” and will now formalize as “Pasco’s Law of Universal Adoption*” as I haven’t seen it articulated anywhere else yet:
Everything has a negative environmental impact when enough people start using it
Looking at it another way, this could in someways be considered as an environmental application of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
As a consequence, when presented with alternative energy ideas, my tendency is to look at the impact of the the approach, no matter how small, and consider the impact of it’s adoption on a global scale. I think that this is the only sensible rubric for picking a new energy source - you have to speculate on the scalability of the solutions in order to make a sensible comparison of them.
That being said, I think that there are some interesting ideas being tossed around and I’m interested in finding out more and being involved in the process of finding out what our future will be.
*If I’m lucky, I’ll have other ones before I retire.
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environment, alternative energy
